For three years, this works. He turns $50k into $5M. He is a genius. He writes a Substack. Then a black swan event hits—a margin call, a liquidity crunch, a regulatory change. Because his skills are overdeveloped in the theory of winning but underdeveloped in the survival of losing, he loses everything in 72 hours. The amateur returns to zero; the professional survives to trade another day.
Thirty years ago, the barriers to entry were fiscal. To be an amateur photographer, you needed a darkroom. To be an amateur machinist, you needed a lathe. To be an amateur musician, you needed a studio. overdeveloped amateurs
We are not going back to the era of the gentleman amateur. The tools are too powerful, and the desire for creative control is too high. The overdeveloped amateur is here to stay. For three years, this works
Look at any gym on Instagram. The overdeveloped amateur fitness influencer has a 315-pound bench press, 2% body fat, and the shoulder mobility of a steel beam. He can teach you how to build boulders for deltoids. He cannot touch his toes. He writes a Substack